PROBLEM ARTICULATION
1. PROBLEM NARRATIVE:
India’s tiger population which was estimated to be a 100,000 during the turn of the 20th century [1] has severely dropped over the last hundred years. As per the 2011 Tiger census, only 1706 tigers [2] currently exist in the country which corresponds to a 98% decline in its population figures. Being India’s National animal there is wide spread cry to protect the species whose fate is quite uncertain.
The decline in the tiger population over the years has been a direct consequence of poaching, inadequacy in prey base, man-animal conflicts and ‘sport’ hunting. Tiger body parts are used in traditional Chinese Medicine for their medicinal value and hence a strong demand in the black market trade of animal parts has been the driving factor behind the current poaching scenario[3]. Prey base depletion which is responsible for natural deaths has been a consequence of habitat destruction for human development and animal hunting[4] which was considered a sport in India during the early half of the 20th century [5]. Man-animal conflicts occur mainly due to encroachment. Tigers encroaching into human territory in search of alternate prey and even humans encroaching into tiger zones to graze live-stock are the reasons behind man-animal conflicts[4]. The above facts have been generalized as ‘causative factors’ in order to keep the causal loop diagrams.
Efforts to mitigate the above issues have severely failed in the past in spite of policies and legislations being in place.
2. REFERENCE MODE:
The variation in tiger population over the past century or further beyond, typifies the current problem. It is the dashboard variable of choice as its behavior over time has been critical enough to force the Government to address the problem.
By 1900, an estimated 100,000 tigers were known to have lived in India [1]. However, the 1972 tiger census increased Government’s concerns as it showed that only 1827 tigers [6] still remained alive. The situation improved with Project Tiger, a conservation initiative launched with the aim to maintain a viable tiger population in the country, and subsequent legislations that banned its hunting and the trade of tiger parts. By 1989, the numbers grew to over 4000[7]. But over the next decade the population dropped considerably owing to direct causative factors along with several other new factors that were supposedly beyond boundaries of the Government’s mental model. The 2002 census showed an estimate of 3500 tigers [8] signifying the drop in spite of the policies. The negative trend continued and by 2008 the population fell to a mere 1411 [8]. The recent 2011 tiger census showed an addition of 295 tigers to previous results which signified the intensifications in tiger conservation efforts. Currently there are 1706 tigers [1] alive.
The year versus population graph shows how population of the Indian tigers varied over time. The positive slope from 1972 signifies the improvements in tiger population since implementation of Project Tiger. The population starts to dip in the 1990s which signifies the onset of unintended consequences. The graph is however limited in information and does not show the declining trend during the early half of the 20th century and the trend during the last decade.
3. RELEVANCE OF A SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE:
Evidence of feedback dynamic: The Government’s policies were originally aimed at regulating the causative factors behind tiger deaths so that the tiger population could revive. Instead the policy introduced new feedbacks that involved insufficiency in funds, scams and black market price hike of tiger parts which led to added impacts on the tiger population making the situation even worse. For example, the ban on the trade of tiger parts was aimed to reduce poaching of tigers. But this resulted in a price hike of tiger parts in the illegal trade market and poachers in turn doubled their efforts to hunt down tigers.
Evidence of a long time horizon: The variation of the dashboard variable shows that that the problem has been persistent for over a hundred years.
Multiple actors with competing mental models: Actors include the Government itself, locals who relocate settlements, the poachers, the public, NGOs, conservationists, etc. All of them have competing mental models. For example, the Government’s idea is to mitigate poaching while the poachers compete by illegally hunting more tigers.
Evidence of policy resistance: In spite of the ban on hunting tigers in 1970 [6], the Project Tiger initiative 1973 [4], and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES),1975 [9],current figures in tiger population prove that the situation has failed to improve on the whole. (CITES prevents illegal international trade of animal parts)
4. STUDY OBJECTIVES AND QUESTIONS ADDRESSED:
The study objective is to develop a model that would allow Government MoEF (Ministry of Environment and Forests) officials to understand better, the system behavior and feedback dynamics that are causing the decline in tiger population over time in the presence of policies and legislative instruments. The study seeks to use the model to formulate scenarios that would sustain the tiger population which in turn will help identify necessary changes that are required in current policies.
The study aims to addresses the following questions.
1. What are the factors that are ultimately responsible for the behavior of the dashboard variable that has occurred over time?
2.Why have policy measures been unsuccessful and what are the related factors responsible for unintended consequences?
3. To identify areas in the current system where policy changes are soon required?
DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS:
CLD MECHANICS:
1. The Government’s mental model behind Project Tiger (B1):
The behaviour of the loop explains how the tiger crisis brought about a policy implementation in order to address the situation and describes the intended consequence involved.
The low figures in India’s tiger population revealed by the 1972 census [6] caused serious concerns among the public, especially the animal conservationists. A country wide democratic voice forced the Government to make efforts to address the aggravating issue. The Government’s Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) [4] disbursed funds in order to launch Project Tiger, a conservation program that’s efforts was primarily to minimise the causative factors, both human and natural, that led to tigers deaths. This according to the Government would allow the net growth rate and eventually the tiger population to revive over time. Clearly, the loop dynamics are goal seeking thus justifying it as a balancing feedback loop.
2. Natural growth dynamic (R1): (supporting loop)
Loop behaviour describes the natural growth dynamic involved with population of tigers. The higher the population is, the higher is the net growth rate of the population and vice versa. Its runaway dynamic makes it a reinforcing feedback loop.
3. Unintended consequences:
The launch of Project Tiger might have been successful in reducing the number of tiger deaths early on; however the Government’s mental model was not broad enough to account for the unintended consequences that subsequently followed.
a) Incentivized poaching (B2):
The loop’s behaviour describes how the policy led to increased poaching. Its dynamics perceive a goal of its own contradictory to the policy making it a balancing feedback loop.
Greater conservation efforts brought down the number of tigers killed by humans. Less tigers killed meant less tiger parts available in the black market trade. Hence its pricing in the black market went up due to its growing demand. Higher market prices drove poachers to increase their efforts to hunt down tigers by handing out rewards to local people who they thought could help them with their indigenous knowledge of the forests and tigers. This ultimately led to more human-caused tiger deaths.
b) Shift in momentum (B3):
Loop B3 describes how the results of a policy action (the growth in the tiger population here) can affect the efforts required to implement the action. It is a balancing loop involving corrective action.
The tigers saw a golden period during the initial fifteen years since Project Tiger was launched. The project had tremendous response as tiger deaths, both naturally and human caused, went down and tiger populations went up considerably as per the 1989 census [4]. The Government was now more relaxed with the results as public pressure decreased. Eventually MoEF funds reduced leading to insufficient investments in project effort signifying a shift in the momentum.
What’s important notably is that the insufficiency was realised only when negative trends in the tiger population started to materialise and investigations were made. So there is a delay involved before the Government can compensate with more funds.
Insufficient funding affected the quality of efforts under Project Tiger. This accelerated the causative factors and human kills which in turn caused the net growth rate and ultimately the tiger population to drop again.
c) Effect of corruption (B4):
The dynamics of this loop explain how corruption can have a negative impact on the goal of the Government’s mental model. If efforts under the conservation program are narrow and do not consider adequate research to support counting methods, it leaves the census system open to manipulation. This can result in scams as it allows corrupt officials to take advantage and misdirect MoEF funds for other unintended purposes which eventually will lead to insufficient investments in project efforts. As discussed earlier, there is a delay involved and damage to the tiger population is already done by the time insufficiencies are realized by the government which happen following the rise in public pressure.
What’s worse is the Government is misled to counteract the situation by shelling out more funds. This is because it sees funding insufficiency as the root cause thus leaving the SCAM factor intact which continues to makes the situation even worse. There is a delay involved before the scam can be uncovered.
The dotted causal link represents a weak link as there was insufficient research behind the ‘PUG MARK’ counting method used earlier under Project Tiger. Inconsistency of the method [10] left its results open to manipulation. Research efforts have now been strengthened under Project Tiger to improve accuracy of counting methods.
The loop has its own goal and hence it is a balancing feedback.
Declining tiger population – DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS:
and human causative factors (like poaching and prey depletion) may have impacted the tiger population directly but these account only partially for the problem that has developed over time i.e specific to the dashboard variable’s behaviour over time. It’s because these factors are accounted for and mitigated by just broadening the scope of conservative efforts made under the Government’s (Actor) policy. However other factors, which materialise in the system due to inefficiencies in policy measures, feed system dynamics that make these natural and human causative factors even more problematic. Funding insufficiency, scams owing to census manipulation and rising price of tiger parts in the black market are such unintended consequences that result from the policy itself and their behaviours reinforce the causative factors like poaching, making the situation even worse. Factors with associated delays like funding insufficiency require more focus since they are usually realised after the impacts occur. Hence, further policy measures taken to address the current problem must account for these dynamics and associated delays that were overlooked in the Government’s earlier policies.
References:
